LINKING CONFLICT TO INEQUALITY AND POLARIZATION By

In this paper we study a behavioral model of conflict that provides a basis for choosing certain indices of dispersion as indicators for conflict. We show that a suitable monotone transform of the equilibrium level of conflict can be proxied by a linear function of the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman fractionalization index, and a specific measure of polarization due to Esteban and Ray. JEL-Classification: D74, D31 Key-words: conflict, polarization, inequality. 1We are grateful to participants in the Yale Workshop on Conflict and Rationality, ESSET meeting at Gerzensee, CRED (Namur), GREMAQ (Marseille), IAE (Barcelona), and ISI (Delhi), and to Anja Sautmann for comments and research assistance. Joan Esteban is a member of the Barcelona GSE Research Network funded by the Government of Catalonia. He gratefully acknowledges financial support from the AXA Research Fund and from the Spanish Government CICYT project n. SEJ2006-00369. Debraj Ray is grateful for support from the Fulbright Foundation, and to the Indian Statistical Institute for warm hospitality during a sabbatical year.